Word spread that two big pharma players, Bristol Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca, each valued at more than $130 billion, are in talks for a merger. But the notion was largely dismissed by analysts, who deemed it “unlikely” given the companies’ major rival products, which would likely complicate the deal in antitrust proceedings.
AstraZeneca’s stock dropped over 4% ahead of today’s regular trading to $162.13. On the flip side, BMS rose nearly 6% to $69.20.
The Financial Times reported rumors that such a deal was in the works. If the mega-merger did come to pass, it would be the largest in the pharma industry’s history. However, analysts don’t believe it.
“The significant overlap in business does not make a deal more likely, and BMO Capital Markets wrote on Sunday evening. The analysts noted the deal was likely to be closely watched by both U.S. and European antitrust authorities.
BMO said it saw some commonalities between the two companies’ commercial portfolios and believes that may diminish the chances of a successful deal.
Unlikely Mega-Merger Faces Steep Regulatory Hurdles
Most importantly, the companies are directly competing in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with BMS’ Opdivo and AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi. In 2025, Opdivo generated $10.05 billion in revenue globally, while Imfinzi generated $6.06 billion in revenue.
There are several other therapeutic overlaps between the two companies to different extents of competition that will likely get the FTC’s attention if a deal is struck, BMO said.
Mega deals are no new thing for BMS. The company bought Celgene in 2019 for $74 billion. To complete that deal, BMS was ordered to divest psoriasis and psoriatic arthritic drug Otezla to Amgen.
A direct acquisition by either BMS or AstraZeneca is unlikely, as neither has the firepower to make a straight purchase, BMO added. The analysts believe BMS will have the capacity to make deals valued around $32 billion, while AstraZeneca will have the capacity of $37 billion. Data from S&P Capital IQ show that the market value of BMS is $133.41 billion and of AstraZeneca is $195.93 billion.
If the deal does clear all the obstacles in its path, analysts believe that it could change the current deal climate, which has already been active this first half of the year.
If the proposed deal with AZN is successful, it “may represent the beginning of a fresh cycle of large-scale global pharma companies making acquisitions,” Jefferies wrote on Sunday.
Jefferies also said that joining AstraZeneca with BMS would also change the cancer scene. The combined company would rake in $100 billion in annual sales with the “deepest oncology portfolio in the industry,” the firm wrote.
Strategic Synergies and the Future of Cancer Treatment
Aside from cost synergies, the strategic motivation could be more than just a race for bigger portfolios of complementary assets that could accommodate a more complicated combination regimen, Jefferies said.
AstraZeneca has done a great job of pairing Imfinzi with the drug developed by Daiichi Sankyo and its partner, Enhertu, and Datroway up until now. If BMS were to enter into a partnership with AstraZeneca, it would pave the way for Opdivo combinations.
“A combination with BMS would eliminate commercial obstacles to exploring additional combinations with Opdivo, which has a wider scientific and commercial reach than Imfinzi, Jefferies wrote.
Companies may also consider combinations of triplet therapies, combining targeted therapies, for instance, with immunotherapies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). AstraZeneca has numerous of these targeted products in its arsenal, such as Tagrisso, Lynparza and investigational camizestrant, which is currently under FDA review. Yervoy is BMS’s immuno-oncology asset that is in the clinic, along with its next-generation programs, Jefferies said.
If BMS and AstraZeneca can combine forces, they could develop complicated therapy combinations in lung, breast, ovarian and gastrointestinal cancer, Jefferies said.
Multidrug combinations are rapidly becoming the standard approach to treating cancer, and the potential to create and market more complicated treatment combinations without having to negotiate with other companies could be one of the most compelling reasons to merge.
AstraZeneca-BMS Merger Sparks Industry Debate
AstraZeneca has become the center of pharmaceutical M&A speculation following reports of a potential combination with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS). A deal could create a pharmaceutical group valued at close to $400 billion, making the proposed combination one of the industry’s largest ever.
However, the situation remains uncertain. A senior source cited by Reuters said there were no discussions between the companies and that there was never a deal to be done.
Why AstraZeneca-BMS Would Be Significant
A potential AstraZeneca and BMS combination would bring together two major global pharmaceutical businesses with substantial oncology and specialty-medicine portfolios.
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