News With the best pipeline in the industry, Lilly's stock...

With the best pipeline in the industry, Lilly’s stock and valuation soar in 2021


Lilly has been the top pharmaceutical firm this year and this can be well explained by taking a glance at its portfolio. Diabetes and Alzheimer’s medications, Tirzepatide and donanemab, are the most valuable R&D assets in the industry, surpassing the products of other firms with a significant margin.

Lilly’s pipeline has a worth of about $45.6 billion, which is the double Net Present Value of Roche’s pipeline, which ranks second among the major pharmaceutical companies. Of fact, this assessment is merely a rough approximation, and it is important to keep in mind that a firm that has introduced some major products a while back may appear unstable in position. Abbvie, which is at a lower level, is launching new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, that are projected to be the best-selling drugs.

However, the main causes for the lower rating of GSK are hard to trace.
The corporation has been under immense pressure to revitalize its pipeline, and many stakeholders are advocating for it.

The RSV ( Respiratory Syncytial Virus) vaccine of GSK, with an NPV ( Net Present Value) of $1.6 billion, is now the sell-side’s most potential initiative, but the corporation must ensure that launching a crucial program amidst the pandemic does not impede development.

However, this asset does not rank among the most valuable individual initiatives. Lilly’s lead is evident here, although not everyone will agree with the NPV of donanemab. Confirmatory evidence is needed to assess the amyloid-beta antibody’s likelihood of reaching the market, which will not be available until 2023.

The sell-side, on the other hand, isn’t renowned for its temperance. Since the findings of the phase 2 clinical trial of Trailblazer-Alz were released this year, the sales forecast of Evaluate Pharma for donanemab has increased to $3.1 billion. The sales forecast of donanemab depends on the destiny of aducanumab, Biogen’s Alzheimer drug.

Unexpectedly, the anti-Tigit antibody of Roche and Sanofi’s BTK inhibitor is ranked on top, considering that the key programs for both have recently begun, and confirmative information will be available in a few years. Both have the potential to handle vast markets, however further evidence is still needed.

Only conventional major pharmaceutical firms are included in this study, and extremely valuable products are held in pipelines outside of this group. Argenx’s FcRn MAb efgartigimod has a $9.6 billion Net Present Value (NPV), Allakos’s rare disease therapy lirentelimab has an NPV of $8.6 billion, and Amgen’s Kras inhibitor Lumakras has an NPV of $8.7 billion.

It will take a long time to see if these products are worth the investment. However, it is not impossible that those products that are under the control of smaller manufacturers may be drawing the attention of large pharmaceutical companies looking to expand their pipelines.

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